Africa

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has met to deal with the situation in Zimbabwe and has made clear that the region’s leaders want to see the results of the election that was held more than two weeks ago. Spokesmen nonetheless insist that there is no crisis in Zimbabwe, which, while absurd in light of the fact that Zimbabwe has been in crisis for a decade, more or less, probably reflects a desire to tamp down current tensions.  Thabo Mbeki, who met with Mugabe this weekend, which is certain to fuel lots of speculation in South Africa, has seconded the “no crisis” line, which almost certainly means that this issue was broached behind closed doors and SADC members agreed to adhere to a party line.  

In related news, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has announced that Africans, especially SADC, must resolve the Zimbabwe situation. This is probably smart diplomacy. Brown certainly is rooting for Mugabe to go, but he also knows that anything he says to that effect will only fuel Mugabe’s wrath and will allow him to strike the anti-imperialist pose that is such a key tool in his kit.

Meanwhile in a twist that reveals that the Movement for Democratic Change remains committed to its chosen course of insisting that it won the election outright, and thus will not participate in a run-off, plans to mount a court challenge to the recount that the Zimbabwe Election Commission has ordered. The MDC believes that the recount merely will provide the pretext for Mugabe’s people to fix the vote count, the original totals of which still have not been announced, which does raise some questions about the recount.

Finally, Foreign Policy, optimistic that Mugabe might be on his way out, has compiled a list of other dictators around the globe whose time might soon be up. Sudan’s Omar Hassan al-Bashir also, rightly, makes the cut.   

Tempered optimism may have dominated the news cycle with regard to Zimbabwe for a couple of days, as supporters of the opposition have basked in the prospects of something even “sweeter than a miracle.” But might grim reality be setting in?

Never mind that even if all goes well and the opposition emerges fully victorious not only over Parliament but also by taking over the presidency the overall outlook will hardly be cheery for Zimbabweans inside and outside of the country. More ominously, it appears that the long-feared crackdown from Mugabe’s loyalists in the security forces may be underway. Apparently Zimbabwe’s paramilitary police have begun raiding the offices of opposition leaders and foreign journalists, detaining at least a few of the latter. Intimidate and crush the opposition and the press. That is a longstanding hallmark of Mugabe’s regime, and however belatedly, his forces seem to be coming to the realization that simple election theft is not going to be sufficient, even if it is necessary for Mugabe to hold on to power.

You will also want to read Patrick Bond’s assessment of the Zimbabwe crisis at Pambazuka News, which has several other important stories on events in Zim, inlcuding the text of a petition from Zimbabwe Civil Society Organizations to the heads of state of the  Southern African Development Community and a timely and apt statement from civic organizations in Kenya expressing sympathy and support for Zimbabwe. Bond’s piece is among the first non-ZANU-PF voices to condemn, or at least harshly criticize, Simba Makoni’s candidacy. While many of Bond’s points have merit I believe that Makoni’s candidacy almost surely allowed thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands to realize that they could break from ZANU-PF if only they had the will and the courage. Many of us, myself included, became perhaps too enamored of makoni at the expense of Tsvangirai, but the reason for that is that Makoni may have opened eyes to the extent of disenchantment that in too many circles was whispered when it was spoken at all.