Africa

A lack of economic diversification has long plagued much of Africa. During the colonial era and well beyond mono-crop agriculture did demonstrable harm to numerous societies. One of the destabilizing factors that fueled the conditions that created the Rwandan genocide, for example, was the collapse of coffee prices in a country dependent upon exporting coffee beans. Increasingly the mono-crop problem has been replaced with the so-called resource curse whereby countries discover oil, become dependent upon its export, warped by its allure, and disappointed by its false promises. The Brookings Institute has issued a report on Africa’s diversification challenge, which you can, and should, access here. 

Robert Mugabe has taken a month-long leave, part of which he will spend outside of Zimbabwe. To say the least, Mugabe’s plans raise a slew of questions. Are there any ramifications for this trip? Is this merely Mugabe’s solipsism coming to the fore? Is the old despot suffering from ill health? Is it even remotely possible that this will mark the first stages of Mugabe negotiating for himself a golden parachute into exile? Could Mugabe face a coup from within his military, police, security, or intelligence apparatus? Is the rest of ZANU-PF in the loop? And what of Morgan Tsvangirai and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)? What do they do during this interregnum? Will the party’s leaders be safe? Most have long assumed the negotiations to be dead. Is this merely a confirmation of this belief or can something more be read into it?

Most likely a month from now status quo ante will prevail. But it would not surprise me if in the next few weeks there are some developments that change the dynamic in Zimbabwe one way or the other, and in the short-term not for the good. This would eveninclude Mugabe’s departure from power, which will inevitably leave a vacuum in both ZANU-PF and in the country’s politics even if it would be for the best — and the scenario many of us have hoped to see transpire for quite some time. As we know, African politics tends to abhor a vacuum.  

It is probably the first question most people ask when given a thumbnail sketch of the nightmare in Zimbabwe (and, to be honest, in many other places not only in Africa but around the globe): How do people survive? In the case of Zimbabwe, with its inflation in the hundreds of millions (231 million or so, though any assertion of the actual right imposes precision without providing accuracy), its scarcity of food and other commodities, its nonexistent jobs, its health crisis, they scavenge. They make do. They hustle. They stretch the little they have, and then they stretch further. They show their fundamental resourcefulness. They wake up in the moring wondering how they will make do, then they get by for the day, and go to bed wondering how they’ll make do the next day.

[Zimbabwean children picked up corn that had spilled from a truck on a recent Sunday along a road south of the capital, Harare. Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi for the Associated Press via The New York Times.]

With all of the grim economic tidings, both real and perceived, current and forecast, the Western Cape appears to have received some good news. The Cape Town Regional Chamber of Commerce expects the province to see modest economic growth in the coming year even as the rest of the country faces recession.

Today’s Sunday Washington Post had two articles featuring South Africa.

A rather reductionist, simplistic, (and jarringly self righteous) editorial decries South African inaction with regard to Zimbabwe. Yes, we all wish South Africa would do more. But tellingly the editors proffer few concrete solutions and cover ground that has been covered better elsewhere.

Meanwhile, at least in part because of the impact the global economic crises have had on South Africa, apparently the used-car market is flourishing in Johannesburg. This strikes me as one of those stories that shows the ways in which people are coping with economic circumstances as much as it is a slice of life from the potential encroaching calamity. It also shows people acting rationally — minimizing debt, looking for bargains, negotiating, saving, and so forth. In many ways, this may represent a silver lining amidst the concern about what’s coming in the next few months.

A spokesman for the South African government has indicated that the antagonists in Zimbabwe are close to achieving a power-sharing agreement. If this is the case (and I, for one, am hopeful but am not holding my breath) it seems likely that the current cholera emergency coupled with the instability brought about as the result of the currency crisis, will have served as the tipping point.

Brief comments about three separate but interconnected stories:

I am not the only one who wonders if Jacob Zuma might not have overplayed his hand and created a situation the unintended consequences of which might be to prevent him from taking over as South Africa’s president in 2009.  Patrick Laurence speculates similarly in a piece in the Star. Given the controversy that swirls around Zuma , the discontented cadres allied with Mbeki, the wariness of many who see a fractured ANC, and the opportunity that Kgalema Motlanthe has before him, do not be surprised if Zuma’s gambit backfires and spectacularly so.

And while those who still maintain power can deny the depth of the ANC’s divisions, do not be fooled by such whistling past the graveyard. Those divisions are real, they are deep, and they will not easily be reconciled. Expect the rumblings of the formation of a breakaway party to grow louder in the months to come.  And if the formation of a new party comes to pass, it will be yet another outcome for which Jacob Zuma and his supporters will have proved to be woefully unprepared.

Finally, to calm the shaken nerves of investors Trevor Manuel has announced that there will be little change in South Africa’s macroeconomic policies. Which is to say that the new dispensation will almost surely find that nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki embraced the fundamental tenets of free market capitalism for very sensible and pragmatic reasons. There is ample room for disagreement about the nature of South Africa’s economy, and simply prattling on about the wonders of the market provides no panacea. But those idealists and ideologues advocating fantastical solutions in which South Africa will somehow turn its back on the fundamental tenets of the market economy will be in for a rude awakening.

Most South Africans, and indeed observers the world over, have been left scratching their heads over the recent events that with dizzying speed led to Thabo Mbeki’s looming resignation and the biggest political crisis in South Africa since the period prior to 1994. Not all are thrilled with the decision and others are worried about the ramifications. Whatever one’s views of South African politics and the nasty personal rivalries involved, this is not an ideal outcome and these are not good days for South Africa or the African National Congress.

Now comes the hard part: What’s next? The ANC is going to have to deal with the transition, ease the worries not only of the Mbeki wing of the party but of the Cabinet, the opposition parties, the international community, and of course the country’s masses. For the time being Trevor Manuel will remain as Finance Minister, a vital step to placate both the domestic and international community as to the continued viability of South Africa’s economy. While Jacob Zuma will presumably win election to the country’s presidency after elections in 2009, for the time being Baleka Mbete, the Speaker of the National Assembly, will likely serve as a placeholder bridge in the Presidency between Mbeki and Zuma, assuming that deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka follows through on her promise to resign if Mbeki was forced out, though there are some questions as to the exact Constitutional implications of Mbeki’s and Mlambo-Ngcuka’s resignations. 

It is perhaps no coincidence that legal experts believe that Zuma’s corruption trial will likely not proceed until 2010. By that point he will be safely ensconced in office and it will be all the harder to convict him without sending the country into another Constitutional crisis. Thus the recent events very much seem like a consolidation of power that while unnecessary and destabilizing also leave no doubt as to Zuma’s status not only as the ANC’s leader but as the country’s de facto head. Things might work out well. But it is hard to feel better about South Africa’s political prospects now than a week ago, at least in the short term.

In The Star Ufrieda Ho shows how many argue that Eskom’s proposed rationing recommendations will hit the poor disproportionately:

A 10 percent power cut for a Sandton man means his air-conditioner gathers dust; for the Soweto man it means he spends his nights in darkness.

This is skewed equity Eskom-style, says environmental activist Bobby Peek.

The affluent have to cut back on luxuries. The poor have already cut to the bone. There are few luxuries. Asking them to further do without simply exacerbates the gap between those who have and those who don’t.

There is some apparent good news for the South African economy.  Business confidence appears to be up marginally since June. Just what impact this will have on the economy at large is far from clear. Nonetheless, since the economic elites outside of government tend to be those who are most pessimistic about South Africa, this qualifies as an encouraging sign.