Africa

“Everything is fine, until the moment when it is not. And when that moment comes it can be very quick and very bad.” – Aiméry Mbounkap, a site planner for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 

The New Yorker has a lengthy feature revealing just how difficult it is to be a humanitarian aid worker in eastern Chad. The conditions on the ground would be bad to begin with, exacerbated, indeed largely created, by the deluge of refugees coming from Darfur. Geopolitics are exacerbated by a fraught domestic and local political situation. Poverty is endemic. The geography is hostile, the weather no less so, the infrastructure nonexistent.

The United Nations, via a statement from Secretary general Ban Ki-Moon, has acknowledged that the peacekeeping mission in Darfur faces “enormous challenges.” This unfortunate, but not unexpected, news allows me the flimsy pretext to remind you of my FPA analysis on Darfur, “‘Never Again,’ Again.”

The Foreign Policy Association has published a lengthy piece that I have been working on for quite a while, “Never Again,” Again: The Darfur Crisis. It is also available in .pdf, with footnotes, here.

The opening paragraph:

The pattern is relentless, bleak, frustrating, and odiously predictable. The leadership of Sudan and its murderous minions engage in brazen and cynical acts of murder and foment chaos, either directly or by proxy. The rest of the world responds tepidly if it responds at all. Sudan oversteps, the world criticizes, hinting of ramifications to come. Sudan backs off just long enough for the goldfish-length attention span of the western powers to turn their attentions elsewhere. And then the self-preserving thugs in Khartoum return almost immediately to their cruel and rapacious ways.

[Crossposted at dcat.]

The Council on Foreign Relations has a useful primer on American policies toward the five countries President Bush is visiting this week.

I am going to make a controversial assertion: Although President Bush has, by just about any measure, been a pretty bad president, he ranks among the upper echelons in terms of policy toward Africa. Now this is not much of an accomplishment, to be sure. American policy toward Africa has ranged from the loathsome to the negligent to the indifferent. And I’m not certain that the United States has ever had an administration with an even passably good foreign policy toward the continent. So Bush is among the best of a bad bunch, despite essentially countenancing genocide in Darfur, the lack of delivery on some grand promises, and some questions about intent with regard to AFRICOM. Still, both President Cinton and President Bush at least had Africa within the periphery of their vision, which is a far cry from the noxious “Constructive Engagement” that preceded them.

All this tells me is that Americans must demand more when it comes to United States policy toward Africa. If Bush is among the best we’ve had, we have a pretty shameful record.

There is lots going on these days across the continent, so without further palaver, I’ll point you in the right directions to catch up.

Your first stop should probably be the latest Pambazuka News, which has useful articles on Chad, Zimbabwe, lots on Kenya, and other important issues. From there you can go to the latest AfricaFocus Bulletin, which casts its gaze on Chad and makes clear that the crisis in that country represents far more than merely a subsidiary crisis of the turmoil in Darfur.

Kenya will likely continue to dominate the news cycle from Africa. Kofi Annan has clarified — some might say backed down from — his “grand coalition” proposal to solve that country’s political crisis. At the Mail & Guardian Kwamboka Oyaro wonders whether the Grand Coalition, or whatever one chooses to call it, really is the viable solution to the problems that underlie Kenya’s fractured political culture. Meanwhile with an eye toward the future, some Kenyans are preparing for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to address the recent violence and other human rights violations. But the devil is in the details, and the question of amnesty will surely prove to be a serious sticking point.

At IOL Chris Chikana tries to figure out whether or not Simba Makoni poses a serious threat to Robert Mugabe’s leadership. He elides giving any real conclusions. I maintain that the challenge, whether fruitless or not, is necessary.

Finally, Richard Cornwell, a senior research associate at the Institute for Security Studies, reminds readers of The Mail & Guardian not to overlook Swaziland’s upcoming elections, which he believes run the risk of being as beset by violence and perfidy as those in Kenya and which we ought to worry about as we do what may come in Zimbabwe.

It almost certainly comes as a shock to absolutely no one that Robert Mugabe has acted in bad faith and announced unilaterally (even as he has been in the midst of negotiations with the factions of the Movement for Democratic Change) that elections will be held on March 2. Now the MDC is scrambling to figure out what to do. Their options are circumscribed: The opposition can choose to boycott the elections, guaranteeing another Mugabe victory, which the wily tyrant will depict as a mandate, or to participate in elections that are pretty certain to be a sham, in which Mugabe secures victory, thus claiming a mandate. This frustrating hobson’s choice encapsulates the frustration of politics in Robert Mugabe’s brutocracy.

Stephanie Hanson, news editor for the Council on Foreign Relations, recently interviewed Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC’s most visible leader. Tsvangirai gives thoughtful answers to questions on a host of issues, though at time the hopelessness of the opposition’s plight seems almost tangible in his words. He expressed his wish for the world’s response to the situation in Zimbabwe:  “The elections that are forthcoming in Zimbabwe must be raised to the same level like Darfur. There must be an international outcry.” But what has the west’s supposed outcry (which frankly seems rather muted and is by any measure ineffectual) accomplished in Darfur? About as much as it has in Zimbabwe.

Tyrants only know one language, and that is the universal lingua franca of power. Power does not have to mean force, though force is never far from power. Until Mugabe is forced to change, to relent, or to cede control, he will do none of those things. The same can be said for Omar al-Bashir and the thugs he empowers in Darfur. Hand wringing is not enough. It never is.

The Europe-Africa summit has come and gone. Robert Mugabe was the most visible figure at the summit, and he made his share of noise, prattling on about most of the same things about that which he prattles whenever he has cameras on him and with his acquiescent media lapdogs at home lauding him as a hero. At least one European leader, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, condemned Mugabe for his bullying, thuggish, destructive leadership but most of the rest of the attendees could not be bothered, just as they could not be bothered to do anything significant with regard to Darfur, trade, China’s role in Africa, crises in places such as Somalia, or much of anything else. For all of the optimistic talk heading into the conference,  division and disappointment were the coin of the realm in Lisbon, where little concrete progress was made.

It’s always proven remarkably easy for the West to make promises to Africa. It has been in the area of following through on those promises where the outside world has so often fallen short. Thabo Mbeki has identified the crises in Sudan as an area in which promises have been made, and at least to this point, have gone unfulfilled:

A majority of the countries who undertook to assist Sudan financially in implementing the African country’s peace agreement have not fulfilled their pledges, President Thabo Mbeki said on Wednesday.

Briefing the media at Tuynhuys in Cape Town following a meeting with his Sudanese counterpart Omar al-Bashir, Mbeki said that despite the international donor community having pledged to assist with equipment and other resources required to help the Sudanese government resolve its political crisis, many of the countries still had not yet delivered.

“Various countries around the world have not yet responded,” he said.

He said making the resources available to the Sudanese government was a critical element for the resolution of the crisis, and that the South African government would do everything in its power to ensure that countries fulfilled their pledges.

“We need to bring everybody on board,” Mbeki said.

South Africa is often caught in a difficult situation in its role as a continental leader. But Mbeki is right: when the world does not follow through on its promises, especially in a crisis situation such as that in both Darfur, and increasingly in the once-again rumbling south of Sudan, it almost guarantees that chaos will continue to reign.

There is a new story about political intrigue, firings, scandal, corruption, and crime reverberating through South Africa with the issue of an arrest warrant and suspension of National Police Commissioner (and head of Interpol) Jackie Selebi. This might represent Thabo Mbeki’s stiffest political challenge yet, which is in itself saying something. 

The Mail & Guardian editorializes hopefully on the prospects of Africans developing African solutions to African problems, using the Ibrahim Index  as a springboard and less hopefully on the Salebi mess.

Meanwhile, recent data from an internal ANC audit of party membership indicates that Jacob Zuma is the front-runner for the party’s presidency. One wonders if this sort of news might not hasten Cyril Ramaphosa to leave the private sector and return to public service. Ramaphosa, who has remained steadfast that he will not run for the ANC leadership, stands as my (mild) upset candidate to emerge with the party and national presidency. 

What are the odds of reforming Nigeria’s corruption ridden oil industry? The Economist lays out the long odds.

The Boston Globe has an editorial about how scientists increasingly can trace DNA — “genetic markers” – to tell us a great deal about not only the origins but also the movement of human beings from our earliest origins in Africa to today.

Is South Africa indifferent to the Darfur crisis? Pambazuka News believes so. There is little question that the country ought to be doing more to address the situation. Also at PN, Rotimi Sankore presents a rather sophisticated cri de couer about the Zimbabwe situation in which, ultimately, Robert Mugabe’s endless reign of power is the crucial problem.

The UN recently called for a rare summit on Africa and predictably, promises were made, agendas were set, ideas proposed. While it is good to see Africa on the global agenda in such a visible way, many Africans are rightly skeptical:

“Africa’s agenda will increasingly be defined by the African Union,” said AU chairman Alpha Oumar Konare. “We hope to move beyond words, to move beyond promises because too many promises have already been made to Africa.”

One does, however, wonder if Konare is not whistling past the graveyard. Naturally Africans should set their agenda. But so far, the AU, for example, has shown little capacity for effectiveness in Sudan. So far, SADC has proved loath to intervene in Zimbabwe. Perhaps it is still right that Africa choose to address and not to address these issues. But it seems that if the world wants to help, Africans ought to welcome that help, as long as African leaders make clear that they set the agenda and they provide the leadership and they create the structures in which Europeans, Americans and others might operate. In other words, African solutions for African problems, but with whatever help the West is willing to provide in a subordinate capacity.

Western involvement does not have to mean neocolonialism, though as Thabo Mbeki argued before the General Assembly yesterday, the very structure of that organization does favor rich nations over poor ones. Mbeki further asserted that even with their augmented status, developed nations are failing the developing world.  Perhaps the west is listening (now look who is whistling past the graveyard!) and can come to the conclusion that western help under African control might pave a new road for African relations with Europe, the United States, and elsewhere.