Africa

Is the African National Congress losing its best people to the newly formed rival Congress of the People? That is an argument being put forth in at least some circles. In response to another series of high-profile defections from the ANC to COPE Dirk Smit, Speaker of the City of Cape Town municipality, has asserted that not only the numb er of defections is disquieting, but the quality of those leaving the ANC raises concerns. The most compelling political question that will play out in South Africa, and arguably in all of Africa, in 2009, is whether or not COPE can provide a serious and legitimate challenge to the dominance of the ANC. Increasingly it appears that the upstarts will be able to do so.

It appears that the ANC is beginning to understand that the Congress of the People is not going away, its leaders and increasingly robust membership is serious, and that COPE will be a factor in the 2009 elections. The ANC believes that COPE might be able to draw about 10% of the popular vote, thus challenging seriously the ANC’s 2/3 majority. But those numbers seem low, the predictions of an organization finally acknowledging that there is a graveyard, but still whistling past it.

It is hard not to frame the war of words between the African National Congress and the Congress of the People as akin to the two toughest kids in school meeting up on the playground. The hints of threats pass from the lips of ANC spokesmen even as COPE’s people claim not to be at all afraid.

COPE continues to push forward, moving from dissident idea to full-fledged party in almost no time, fleshing out a power structure, drawing prominent supporters all along the way, and showing a remarkable knack for reaching out to a wide range of South Africans.  The most serious question before the new party, then, will be whether it can support itself financially. Presumably funding will begin to rill in as the organization moves from dissidence to legitimate party status, but money, or its absence, seems to be the only thing likely to derail COPE from at least becoming the main opposition party at this stage.

If it is true that the Congress of the People (COPE) already has 40,000 members before it has even gotten off the ground (with the caveat being that these numbers come from COPE’s own people) , the ANC might need to start worrying at least a little bit. The ANC has name recognition, serious historical heft, and already controls government at nearly all levels, giving it tremendous sway. And so far, we have little idea what COPE stands for, though for years the divisions within the ANC have had little to do with what anyone represented in terms of policy or program. Nonetheless, the new party seems on the verge of becoming if not a juggernaut, at least a potentially legitimate opposition party, something South Africa has not seen for a long, long time.

The much-maligned Scorpions have uncovered what should prove to be pretty explosive details on the corruption surrounding the arms deals. Now that Pandora’s Box is open, one wonders just how damaging this could be to the ANC. Is this another Muldergate? Worse?

Under ordinary circumstances the ANC would seem likely, as the only game in town, to weather this storm. But these are not ordinary circumstances in South African politics, and the emergence of the Congress of the People (assuming that the power nexus in that organization’s hands are clean in this affair) changes the calculus significantly.

And, not to be cynical, but is it possible that so many in the ANC hated the Scorpions and wanted to disband the organization not because they truly believed the Scorpions to be ineffective, but rather because they feared that the organization might be too effective?

Recent polling data indicates that South Africans simply have no real sense of who Kgalema Motlanthe is or what he stands for. This is exactly as Jacob Zuma would like it, as a cipher as placeholder in the office of the president only strengthens Zuma’s claim on the position. The Congress of the People is poised to present enough of a challenge to the ANC that name recognition will be a huge factor in the 2009 election. The ANC is thus going to rely on both the brand name and emphasize the good elements of Zuma’s renown while at the same time planting the seed in the minds of voters that COPE is an unknown quantity.

Well, well, well — just when I posit that we have seen relatively few differences between COPE and the ANC here comes a potential whopper. Philip Dexter, a “senior member” (whatever that can possibly mean for a party that has not fully launched yet) of COPE has put forward a position on Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe that departs significantly from that of the ANC in recent years. “From my point of view the only way to solve the Zimbabwe problem at this point is to put enough pressure on Mugabe for him to go. And he should either go voluntarily, or he should go by being forcibly removed. And I think we have to support the Zimbabwean people to achieve that objective.”

Dexter later clarified his position to say that it was his own and not COPE’s, and that use of the passive voice, “should go by being forcibly removed” does not necessarily commit COPE to South African-driven action. Still, it is hard not to see this as a potentially vast departure from the ANC’s policies toward Mugabe. 

So the questions remains, and likely will linger at least until South Africa’s 2009 elections: just how potent a political force will the Congress of the People (COPE) prove to be? And how different from the ANC is the new party, really? After all, the transformations in South African politics boil down to personality clashes and ego as much as to ideological or policy differences. Think I’m wrong? Quick: name five concrete points of dispute on matters of policy between COPE and the ANC.

Lots of elements in the recent news cycle appear to be breaking for COPE as it prepares to make a full December 16 debut. Certainly the new party has some cause for optimism.  High-profile defections from the ANC continue to flock to the party, including from such traditional ANC strongholds as the Eastern Cape. Survey data indicates that the ANC is losing support, and that these losses correlate with the rise of COPE. And COPE has begun putting together a communications dream team at a time when getting out the message (or at least getting out the party name) will be crucial to the party’s survival as something more than just another faceless minor opposition party.

There is no telling what the future holds, but it seems quite clear that the fifteenth year after the election of Nelson Mandela’s ANC is likely to be the most fraught in that party’s post-apartheid history.

There is a new wave of politeness and contrition surrounding South African politics these days, as everyone seems to be apologizing to someone. The Congress of the People has apologized for intemperate remarks from some of its members about Jacob Zuma. Months after the fact ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema has said he is sorry for his (perhaps intemperate!) remarks about his supporters being willing to “kill for Zuma.” Now, whether or not anyone means these apologies is another matter, but the strained civility simply indicates that there is much antagonism in South African politics as the dust settles from the past year’s massive and largely unforeseen transformations.

With all of the verbiage flowing and the spin doctors in full effect in South African politics today, it is hard to separate what is true from what is self serving, what is accurate from what is accusation. To wit, consider the following questions (with answers that I humbly submit for your consideration):
Is South Africa facing a potential civil war? (This seems more like hyperbolic fear-mongering than it does a legitimate assessment of the facts on the gorund.)

Is it possible that for all of the division in South African politics the ANC is poised to garner more than 70% of the vote in next year’s elections? (With all due respect to the pollsters, this seems like an impossibility. If the ANC has actually consolidated its strength in recent years, and especially in recent months, it would be the missed South African story of the decade.)

Is the Congress of the People (COPE) likely to emerge as a savior in South African politics? (No. And to burden any party with such expectations would be silly. For COPE to burden itself with such pronouncements seems suicidal.)

Is the ANC actually “doing COPE’s publicity work” for them? (Sometimes it seems as much.)