FPA Africa 2009 Year in Review
Overview:
It is a fool’s errand to try to summarize the events of an entire continent of 53 nation states and hundreds of millions of people in a few hundred words. Nonetheless, there are some generalizations that hold for the continent, particularly for its politics and international relations.

Sadly some of Africa’s most seemingly intractable conflicts continued to flare over the course of the year. The crises in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, regional divisions in Sudan, and chaos in Somalia show little sign of long-range prospects for optimism. Guinea appears to be on the verge of joining this dubious league of the irreconcilables given that country’s military junta’s utter unwillingness to countenance dissent.

In some instances there are modest signs of progress and even hope, though it would not take much for backsliding to occur. Nigeria’s difficulties with the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) which has seen a series of cease-fires hold, tough the country’s equally fraught religious and political divisions between North and South have shown signs of deterioration in recent months. The political impasse in Zimbabwe presents cause for very cautious optimism inasmuch as violence has abated and the worst of the economic calamity appears to be over, but Robert Mugabe has hardly shown a great deal of willingness for legitimate reform and it would not take a whole lot for things to revert back to chaos.

There is even greater reason for optimism elsewhere. Kenya continues to move forward after the cataclysmic post-election violence that enveloped the country at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008. The country is on pace to approve a new constitution in 2010 and other signs that the country is regaining it footing continue to emerge. Liberia, once one of the countries with seemingly intractable conflicts, continues on the road to recovery. And South Africa is preparing for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, which should provide the country and continent with a month on the world stage. Furthermore, Jacob Zuma, who became president after the country’s elections in May, has by all measures proven to be a much more effective, and much less ideological, leader than many expected.

This summary is of necessity episodic. It does not take into account news good, bad, and neutral all across the continent. But it should give some sense of the myriad difficulties the continent’s people and leaders face, yes, but also the reasons for both cautious and unfettered optimism.

Person of the Year:
There are lots of contenders for Africa’s Person of the Year in 2009. Morgan Tsvangirai (and Robert Mugabe) circled one another warily, Tsvangirai with the almost desperate hope of finding some way to establish a coalition government, Mugabe doing everything he can to delay, delay, delay. But the stalemate itself makes it nearly impossible to recognize the two men as being the most important on the continent in 2009. Mo Ibrahim is always a logical choice, as he is someone who has shown himself to be an ongoing advocate for good governance in Africa. But given that he could not find fit to give his eponymous award for African governance this year it seems that he too falls short. Danny Jordaan, head honcho of South Africa’s 2010 World Cup organizing committee will have to wait until this time next year, but he seems nearly a shoo-in for 2010. Omar al-Bashir continued his noxious reign of regional destabilization, but his 2009 was no more and may have been less malign than in past years. There are myriad others who warrant consideration as well.

It is tempting to turn to Liberia’s President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf who continues to lead Liberia from its long and grim wilderness, but her difficulties with her country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission make me only willing to grant her the status as runner up. Still, she warrants our attention as a possible examplar for the continent. I just want to see how her administration plays out, especially if she goes against the TRC’s recommendations and runs for a second term.

So I am going to go with South African President Jacob Zuma. I recognize that this is a hugely politically-oriented list. But on a continent where individual malfeasance and kleptocracy has done so much ill on the continent it seems clear to me that politics matter and that politicians are important, sometimes vital. Many feared a Zuma presidency, and understandably so. He entered office something of a cipher – what did he stand for? What, beyond platitudes, did a Zuma campaign foreshadow about how he would govern? Even those of us who watch the country daily and closely had no real idea.

What we know now is that there was no dramatic lurch to the left. There has as of yet been no cult of personality and no more demagoguery than comes from the executive in any other nation in the world. Somehow South Africa has avoided the worst of the global economic crisis, and this speaks at least in part to Zuma’s steady hand and his unwillingness to tinker with the economy too much. His brilliant decision not only to keep the almost universally respected Mac Maharaj, but to defy the expectations from nearly every ideological faction by giving Maharaj greater status was pleasantly shocking and revealed Zuma to be a savvier centrist than anyone would have predicted.

Most Unexpected Event:
Among the many things that surprised me about (or from) Africa this year was the sudden prominence and success of African-connected pop culture, particularly in the United States. Two South African-themed movies with serious political implications, District 9 and Invictus met with both critical acclaim and box office success in the latter half of the year. ESPN broadcast live the draw for next year’s World Cup, which naturally had a heavy South African emphasis, with Cherlize Theron, one of the country’s most famous exports, doing hosting duties. Indeed, ESPN covered the preparations for the World Cup extensively.

The latest album from the Malian duo Amadou & Mariam met with critical acclaim, ending up on many critics’ end of year best album lists, a South African group by the name of BLK JKS reminded this listener of TV on the Radio and might be poised to break big Stateside soon, and an American band that broke in 2008 and saw their star rise in 2009, Vampire Weekend, self-consciously embraced Afro-pop. (Their new album comes out this week.) The British music magazine, Mojo, which includes a compilation cd with each issue featured African music in September 2009 and Starbucks music put together a compilation called “World is Africa.”

Increasingly the diaspora has produced actors and athletes that star in American films and on the playing fields and courts. Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s latest story collection, That Thing Around Your Neck, continued her run of success, as did doyens JM Coetzee (who not only had yet another book appear, the imaginative third volume of his memoirs, but he also saw the movie version of his chilling novel Disgrace appear in theaters) and Chinua Achebe.

This is just a sampling of how Africans presented a different face to a receptive world. Globalization and the internet surely played a role in this process of cultural transfer. Whatever the reasons, it was welcome and provided relief from some of the grimmer news that the continent usually provides.

What to Watch for in 2010:
First, let’s look at last year’s predictions and briefly assess them:

I see the Congress of the People as legitimate challenger to ANC dominance in South Africa. Now, the devil is in the details. By saying that it will offer a challenge to the party that has dominated South African politics for the entirety of the post-Apartheid era I am not about to proclaim that COPE is about to take over parliament or the presidency. The ANC still enjoys tremendous (and deserved loyalty), vast infrastructural supremacy, and the very real perquisites of power. But it seems likely that COPE is poised to become the first legitimate opposition party in South Africa since 1994. What we still do not know is what policies and programs COPE will embrace that will separate it from the ANC. Though we also do not know what the controversy over the arms deal, which has already roiled the country’s political culture, will do to weaken the ANC’s hold on the populace. My guess is that the ANC will still garner 50% or more of the electorate in the next national elections, but that COPE will approach the 30% mark, meaning that savvy alliance building could provide a legitimate check on the ANC. (Part of me thinks that COPE may even be able to push the ANC below 50%, meaning that the alliance building will be even more feverish and that COPE really will be in position to challenge for national dominance within a decade.

It seems possible that 2009 will be the year that some how, some way, Zimbabweans free themselves from the death grip that Robert Mugabe has applied to their country. Now he may lose some power as the result of a resolution of the sputtering power-sharing negotiations, still the most likely, if least satisfying option. In this scenario Zimbabwe’s government will continue to be precariously unpredictable, but such a phased transition will at least have the benefit of leading the way for Mugabe’s full successor. Less likely is the possibility that Mugabe is forced from power, either through a revolt from the security forces or externally via the use of force from abroad or else some combination thereof. And then, of course, there is the reality that Mugabe will not live forever. But while few will lament his passing from this mortal coil when it does happen, I cannot muster up the ill will to hope that he dies. Plus, let’s face it, as long as Mugabe is alive but out of power there is at least the remote possibility that he will be held to account for all he has done, though a negotiated settlement will almost certainly involve protections for Zimbabwe’s wily despot.

Here is a no-brainer, alas: Chaos in the DRC, Sudan, and Somalia will continue. The global community, led by the United Nations, will continue to chatter fecklessly. But it is hard to imagine a context whereby any of these three countries (I use the term only in its most literal sense) see the necessary force or resources applied to bring about serious change. We will occasionally see cease fires and hopeful projections, but in the long run, as 2010 approaches the DRC will be an unmanageable mess, especially in the remote eastern regions, Khartoum-fomented death and displacement will characterize the hinterlands in the Sudan, and Somalia will epitomize a stateless, anarchic society. I sincerely hope I am wrong on this one.

Oil will represent no more of a boon for the majority of African people in the continent’s oil-producing states. And this truism will stop absolutely no one in a position to do some from pursuing the alleged riches of oil that benefit the few at the expense of the majority. Let us just hope that Ghana, which expects to see oil production within a year or so, can introduce a new model for oil exploration and development in Africa.

While we will not know it a year from now, African qualifying for the 2010 World Cup will produce at least one team likely to make the knockout rounds and scare at least one traditional power. Who will be 2010’s Ghana? (Or Cameroon? Or Nigeria?) And can Bafana Bafana, South Africa’s national soccer team, pull together all of the resources that ought to make the country a soccer power? Because in recent years the national team has been profoundly disappointing to its millions of supporters. I think that it can. National pride and the allocation of resources will help South Africa return to the glories years of the mid-to-late 1990s. Also: As the year progresses, we will hear more stories, both of the pessimistic type but also increasingly optimistic ones, about the country’s preparations for the globe’s premier sporting event.

Finally, in December 2009 the writer of the FPA Africa Blog’s “Year in Review: 2009” will lament the coverage of Africa, will try to highlight overlooked good news, and will put forward a bunch of predictions destined to go awry.

So, how did I do?

Well, I overstated the success of COPE and I was too optimistic on Zimbabwe. I nailed Sudan, DRC, and Somalia, as well as the UN and the role of oil, though that did not require a great deal of acuity. I did nail Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon moving on to the World Cup finals in South Africa.

So here are my predictions for 2010, about half of which are destined to be off the mark:

First off, I have really bad feelings about Nigeria right now. Umaru Yar’Adua had been in Saudi Arabia for approaching two months and the rumors are that he has brain damage so severe that he cannot remember his wife, never mind run the country. Nigeria is, in the best of circumstances a complex and dynamic, but volatile political stew. Divisions – geographical, economic, religious, “ethnic,” and others – make for a dangerous mix if Yar’Adua really is incapacitated, as appears to be the case, and his succession is up for grabs.

Sudan too looks set for a potentially epochal year. The country will face elections, and one possibility is that the country will divide. The North and South have been held together for years largely by the force of the North’s superior might. And I suspect that a vote to divide might be seen as a vote to secede. Khartoum is rarely accommodation to other parts of deeply fractured Sudan. I cannot see peaceful separation. And even if such a transition manages to take place, the South hardly will go off on its own from a position of strength. Expect more misery to emanate from what is today Sudan, whatever it looks like in January 2011.

On a more cheery political note, expect to see Kenya’s new constitution implemented in the coming months. I do not expect the constitutional process to be a panacea, and it is far from clear how constitutional changes might resolve potential underlying tensions that led to the election violence at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008. But at the same time most of that violence was fomented by the politicians. If political changes can undercut the ability of the elites to manipulate so-called “tribal” loyalties, all to the better.

2010 marks the 50th anniversary of the Year of Africa. In 1960 the trickle of independence that began with Ghana in 1957 became a flood. British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan spoke of “the winds of change” blowing across the globe, and it appeared that with a few exceptions, most notably South Africa, those winds were going to transform Africa. In some ways it did, though as we know, the trajectory was not what optimists would have hoped. Nonetheless, expect to see commemorations across the continent and across the globe over the course of 2010.

Finally: World Cup! World Cup! World Cup! It is easy to hyperventilate about what hosting the FIFA World Cup could mean for South Africa and for the continent as a whole. Yet if the event goes well, it might still be impossible to overstate what it could mean. And I think the World Cup is going to go exceptionally well. Do not be surprised to hear whispers grow more audible over the course of the event touting Cape Town as a potential Olympic host.

May Africa have its best year yet in 2010.