New research by the invaluable South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) indicates that murder rates in South Africa are actually down 30% since 1994-1995. This news flies counter to the stubborn narrative of South African crime escalating out of control. It also should provide something of a palliative for those wringing their hands over whether or not crime is going to make next year’s World Cup a bloodbath. (It should. But it won’t. The naysayers will say nay. What else would we expect them to do?) For those who want to lose themselves in a mass of data about crime in South Africa, I refer you to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) webpage on that topic.
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4 Comments So Far»
Murder is only one aspect of violent crime. We weren’t worried about getting killed. It was the home invasions, the muggings, and car jackings that were happening.
Plus, does the murder rate include acutal murders only, or does it account for killings that happened in the above listed incidents?
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see the violence go down in SA. That’s keeping me form seriously considering a move there, but you know the old saying about statistics?
And numbers are too often used for only one side of an arugment?
So I guess a better question is: is violent crime going down?
Ron –
Yes, murder is but one form of violent crime. The World Cup is but one form of soccer tournament. It also happens to be, you know, sort of the biggest. And color me skeptical of the assertion that South Africans don’t worry about murder but they worry about other crime. That’s at best disingenuous. White South Africans talk about murder constantly even though the overwhelming majority of victims of crime in South Africa are black.
But yes, your point is taken, and it appears from most crime stats that some are going up, some dropping modestly, some dropping more impressively, and a lot are holding steady. In any case, I gave you the mechanism to begin finding those facts for yourself with the link I gave to the ISS stats, many of which are, admittedly, not as recent as 2007-2009.
I’m not much interested in discussing cliches about crimes unless you are prepared to say frontally that I am somehow misusing statistics. I put a statistic on the table that you have not refuted. If you are connecting that statistic to “the old saying about statistics” either man up and refute the statistic or else stop with the slimy innuendo.
If I had asked you whether the murder rate was higher or lower today in South Africa than in 1994 prior to this post, can you honestly tell me that you would have even entertained the idea that the murder rate had dropped and dropped significantly? And so rather than simply assert that the sky is falling in all circumstances, can we not celebrate good news on the crime front while still acknowledging that much work needs to be done? Or are we all about cartoonish dualisms?
dc
Wow, you really have some issues. I wasn’t challenging you about anything. I was asking a question. And yes, I understand the numbers were in the link provided, however, I don’t have the time to read every link on every blog. I thought you might be able to provide an answer.
I never once said that you misued the statistics in any way, or implied that. And since i didn’t make a slimy innuendo, I’m not really sure why you would accuse me of that. As far as ‘manning up’, my manhood isn’t in question. But your ability to be an adult is.
Even if I did challenge you, or insult you, are you so childish and petty that you can’t handle criticism or a different opinon without making personal attacks. I’ve seen you attack other commenters on this blog, and you just confirmed that you are a complete ass.
But don’t worry, I’ll be deleting this blog from my reading list and you won’t have to worry about my comments in the future.
But get some help. You have some issue.
Oh wahhhhhh. You say you weren’t making innuendoes about whether or not I misused statistics. Well, then, explain to me at whom you were directing your assertion about statistics in your original comment. Because that could have been aimed at one of two sources: Either at me, the one who wrote the post, or else at ISS, which seems impossible since by your own admission you did not look at the myriad stats on their page to which I linked. Now I’ll grant that you’re not the clearest writer, so maybe I misinterpreted and you werespeaking about someone else misrepresenting statistics. But if that’s the case, the burden really is on you to be more clear.
As for your other accusations: Meh. I’m not much interested. It’s tough to take someone seriously who whines about the tone of someone’s argument by doing little more than turning his own response into a personal attack. Between being a jerk and being a hypocrite, I’ll take being a jerk, thanks.
Sorry to be losing you. Now, who’s the one who can’t handle a difference of opinion again? After all, I could have just deleted your comments at will. I chose not to. You’re the one deciding not to read any more. Some how I think I’ll survive.
dc
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