Africa

Whether he intended such a result or not, is it possible that Morgan Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the runoff election in Zimbabwe has finally forced the outside world to contemplate real action against Robert Mugabe and his regime? And could that action include the use of force? There are rumblings from Britain that military action could be justified.

The suggestion, from Lord Paddy Ashdown, the former European Union High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, is still a far cry from action. And the logistics would be potentially nightmarish, the precise mission unclear. But if this was Tsvangirai’s hope, that his stepping away from the race would rouse the world from its compacency, it may have worked. And if this was not his plan, it nonetheless is a happy accident.  

Thabo Mbeki is supposed to arrive in Zimbabwe later today to make one last push for Mugabe to embrace change, if not of his regime, at least within it. But Mugabe must see himself as having the upper hand now. Even as the world appears set to act, far too late to have any significant effect on the election process, Mugabe might be in a better position than he has been in at any point since the 29 March election. This grim irony may well not be lost on Mugabe.

Despite the fact that South African farmers produced high yielding maize crops this year, a confluence of global factors means that this staple food for millions of South Africans may be unavailable or prohibitively expensive for the foreseeable future.  The poor, of course, will be the hardest hit: They rely the most on the crop and are the most vulnerable to scarcities and rising prices.  

Crises tend to escalate quickly in South Africa. Just weeks ago there were precious few South Africans who could have identified John Hlophe, the Cape Judge President. Now he is at the center of a row over his alleged involvement in the ongoing arms scandal that some are calling “the greatest showdown in South Africa’s legal history.” Let us assume that this charge is hyperbolic – from the Treason Trials to Jacob Zuma’s forthcoming charges related to those Hlophe faces, the country has not lacked for legal drama, especially in the era after 1948. Nonetheless, the fact that it can be written speaks to the gravity of this crisis.

The ANC is standing behind Hlophe, who adamantly rejects all of the charges, nationally as well as in some of the provinces.  As usual in South Africa, it is difficult to discern where justice, loyalty, and politics converge and where they separate. One tends to assume that all decisions are in some way political. Whether that is cynicism or realism talking, I’ll let readers decide. 

In its Daily News Brief today the Council on Foreign Relations has placed the Zimbabwe crisis at the “Top of the Agenda.” CFR provides lots of links about the ongoing crisis.  

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan also posts about Zim today, with a handful of links, including to some powerful pictures.  

Responses to the escalating crisis in Zimbabwe have accelerated, especially after Morgan Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the campaign today. Here is a roundup:

Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos has sent a message to Mugabe asking him to make sure the election is free and fair and to eliminate the violence besieging his country.

Zim’s independent SWRadio Africa has a series of important stories on the Zimbabwe crisis.

Tanzania is taking an increasingly strong stand against Mugabe.

 And in an interview with the BBC Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka believes action is needed to confront Mugabe and does not rule out force. It has come to this.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change leader who has challenged Robert Mugabe has withdrawn from the runoff election. Tsvangirai, who is widely believed to have won the 29 March elections, and who would likely have won in the 27 June runoff were they free and fair, has cited the widespread violence aimed at MDC supporters as his reason:

“We in the MDC cannot ask them to cast their vote on the 27th when that vote would cost them their lives,” he told reporters in Harare. “We will no longer participate in this violent, illegitimate sham of an election process.”He urged the United Nations, the African Union and the Southern African Development Community to intervene to prevent “genocide”, and said a free and fair election would be “impossible” in Zimbabwe.

The opposition chief said Mugabe had “declared war by saying that the bullet has replaced the ballot”, adding: “We believe an election that reflects the will of the people is impossible.”

It would represent the ultimate in armchair coaching to criticize Tsvangirai, who has so often been a victim of the Mugabe regime’s thuggish, capricious, and ruthlessly authoritarian behavior. He knows better than anyone the costs of standing up to Mugabe and his henchmen. But I do wish Tsvangirai could have found a way to stay in the race, for this confirms Mugabe’s tactics: Use enough violence and intimidation and corruption and you will win.

Perhaps Tsvangirai’s withdrawal is a gambit by which he hopes to force the hand of SADC and the west. If so, it is a risky but potentially brilliant move. Nonetheless, if the runoff does not go on, if Tsvangirai remains out of the race, another sad chapter in Zimbabwe’s sad history is being written without the prospect of a happy ending.

This week The Washington Post “Book World” profiles Africanist Alex de Waal, who contributes a piece in Book World’s “The Writing Life” feature. De Waal is best known for his work on the Sudan and the Darfur crisis. I met de Waal at this year’s Sudan Studies Association meeting. He has a fierce intellect and an unquestionable commitment to his work.

Talk about taking with one hand and giving with the other! Even as the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) seeks a way to have corruption charges against Jacob Zuma disappear and go over the top in their willingness to support him, the organization’s leaders have also made clear that if Zuma disappoints, the ANCYL will have no qualms with working to dump him. The leaders of the Youth League, such as Julius Malema, no stranger to controversy, clearly see their organization as king makers.

South Africa’s coasts have been battered with storms on both the Indian Ocean and Atlantic sides. Severe flooding has beset the coastal regions of the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Naturally the most vulnerable populations, the poor, those living in informal settlements, have been hit the worst. Cleanup has begun in KwaZulu-Natal, though the process will inevitably be slow. death tolls have surpassed the double digit levels, but many more are missing and it is hard not to fear the worst.

Some of the latest developments from Zimbabwe can easily be expressed in shorthand: Mass arrests. Torturing people to death. Shooting and killing members of the opposition. Police, who are allowed to vote early, are forced to cast their votes for the ruling party. And then, because no story on modern-day Zimbabwe is complete without an example of hubris, we have authorities blaming the opposition for all of the troubles and Robert Mugabe claiming that only God can remove him from power.

No wonder some in the region are becoming more vocal about the near-impossibility of a free and fair election, including leaders of countries that have had their own recent electoral difficulties. And no wonder Morgan Tsvangirai is again considering withdrawing from the runoff.