An Unsurprising Surprise
In the latest developments in Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF, which now admits to losing to Morgan Tsvangirai, albeit in a plurality that forced a runoff, may delay the next round of voting for a year. During that time, of course, Robert Mugabe will remain entrenched in office and will use the interregnum to consolidate his rule. By law any runoff is supposed to take place within three weeks of the election, already an impossibility due to the vote counting process, but the Zimbabwe Election Commission has the capacity to delay the next round of polling. The decision has not yet been made, but the fact that it seems even vaguely plausible is telling.
This news and the general uncertainly surrounding the election fiasco has served ZANU-PF and especially Mugabe well. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its candidate Morgan Tsvangirai seems increasingly frustrated, divided, and stifled despite its status as the current front-runners based on their success in the March elections. They seem to understand that none of what has transpired of late bodes well for them. In the meantime Mugabe and his people seem confident and are prepared to contest the runoff, probably understanding as well as their MDC counterparts what this all really means.