Africa

A number of civil society groups concerned with Zimbabwe’s welfare and operating under the banner of the Institute for a Democratic Alternative in Zimbabwe have slammed the Southern African Development Community and Thabo Mbeki for their lack of resolve on the Zimbabwe question. In a damning quotation Wellington Chibebe of the Zimbabwean Congress of Trade Unions asserts, ”For the SADC to have mandated President Mbeki to continue with the (facilitation) exercise, that is the joke of the year.”

By the way, I have no more idea what yesterday’s Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announcement that ZANU-PF lost parliament, as most assumed, mean any more than anyone else does. Robert Mugabe has experienced setbacks before (think of the hair-breadth 2000 Parliamentary election or the  1999 defeat of Mugabe’s proposed constitutional changes) but never have the vultures swooped so close to the carrion of his own power as they do today. I still imagine that Mugabe will maintain his hold, however tenuous, on power.  

Is Zimbabwe on the brink of a civil war? Has the military engaged in a secret coup? Is Zim a police state? (To this last, at least, we say: “yes.”)

 The sad state of affairs is such that these questions are not only viable, they are necessary. Even with the United States putting the sort of quasi-pressure on Zim that only the US tends to apply when it comes to African affairs with which it could not possibly be less engaged, the reality is that the Zim stalemate continues, and I cannot imagine a scenario whereby that stalemate bodes well for the MDC opposition. Time is on Robert Mugabe’s side. And he knows as much.

The news is not getting any better in Zimbabwe. Police have arrested hundreds of individuals seeking shelter in the headquarters of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). many of them were seeking safe haven from ZANU-PF’s ominously-named “Operation Mavhoterapapi,” which translates to “Who did you vote for?”

This does not end well. 

Within the past few weeks I had a review of Robert Collins’ book A History of Sub-Saharan Africa, which he wrote with James N. Burns, appear in the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa’s (ASMEA) “Current Book Reviews.” I gave the book a very favorable assessment. I was thus saddened to discover that professor Collins, a respected Africanist, professor, and administrator, has passed away.   

A diverse coalition has caused China to recall its arms shipment intended for Zimbabwe. Comparable organizations are emerging to address the domestic crisis in Zim while leading religious figures are calling for change in the country. Pressure from outside countries, including South Africa and the United States, is beginning to increase, though Jacob Zuma has made a reasonable point that now is not the time to insult Mugabe.

Will any of this be enough to counter the clear crackdown coming from Robert Mugabe’s ZUMA-PF and the police against the opposition? It is too early to tell. But some elements of this struggle remind me a bit of the global and local coalitions that made up the anti-apartheid movement.

To his credit, Jacob Zuma has positioned himself brilliantly on the Zimbabwe question. While acknowledging Thabo Mbeki as rightful head of state and thus mediator, Zuma wants to see a Pan-African delegation step in and settle the crisis north of the Limpopo. Zuma’s clear goal is to see Robert Mugabe’s reign of power come to an end.

So, how’s this for an anniversary that should inspire ambivalence? Zimbabwe is celebrating its 28th year of independence.  

I know that there are those who argue that things were better under Ian Smith’s Rhodesian regime. I am not one of those people, if only because I refuse to grant privileged status to a white-dominated regime in sub-Saharan Africa. Smith and his supporters were ruthless racists committed to the violent control of a tiny minority of whites over the masses of blacks.

But the noxiousness of Smith’s regime does not forgive Robert Mugabe his manifest sins. Mugabe was a liberation hero. But he also stands as example number one of why the transition from liberation hero to head of state is not one that is inevitable. Mugabe was a legitimate champion for his people when he was fighting in the bush. But that just makes his brutality as Zimbabwe’s President all the more tragic.  

 Mugabe the head of state failed Mugabe the liberation hero.  

I now have a pdf of my pre-election Zimbabwe Op-ed in the March 25 edition of the Cape Argus in which I argued that it was inevitable that Robert Mugabe would win the election. I was right on much, wrong on some. (Mugabe has not been able to control things as easily as I thought, and I gave too much play to Simba Makoni and not enough to Morgan Tsvangirai, though to be fair the point of the article was to compare today’s events with those in the past, in which case Makoni made sense for the analogy. Furthermore, Makoni’s candidacy opened the door for people to realize that Mugabe might be vulnerable.)

In any case, for what it’s worth, take a look.   

The ongoing Zimbabwe arms shipment fiasco has not seen Thabo Mbeki at his best. At The Mail & Guardian Richard Calland argues that Mbeki’s handling of the Zimbabwe crisis has further damaged a reputation that already was on a downward spiral. But he further believes that human rights problems at home undercut South Africa’s ability to function effectively abroad. It’s an interesting, if arguably overstated, argument.